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Since November, nearly everyone has put immigration reform
at the top of the list of things Congress could accomplish
this year. The president has encouraged it, Republicans have
softened their opposition, organized labor and the Chamber of
Commerce are coming together, and a bipartisan group of key
legislators is working behind the scenes to draft a bill that achieves
comprehensive solutions built upon significant compromise. It’s
taken more than twenty-five years to get here, but here are the key
issues to watch for when the bill is rolled out in the coming months:

BORDER SECURITY

Over the past decade resources allocated to border enforcement
have increased exponentially, and interdiction and removal are
now at record highs. While significant progress has been made in
securing the border, the border will never be 100% secure, because
the biggest draw is the potential to work here in the US. While US
employers have been required to verify the employment eligibility
of each new hire since 1987, the use of fraudulent documents has
allowed many people to circumvent the rules. To combat this
problem USCIS developed a program known as E-Verify, which
allows employers to electronically verify the employment status
of new workers through the USCIS database. All government
contractors are required to utilize this system. Some states, such as
Arizona require all employers to utilize it, and a growing number of
employers are utilizing it nationwide. Look for all employers to be
required to use E-Verify as a way to remove a substantial economic
incentive to overstays and undocumented entrants.

PATHWAY TO CITIZENSHIP

While President Obama and the Democrats would prefer that the
11 million undocumented immigrants be provided a reasonable
path to legalization and citizenship, Republicans refuse to reward
those who broke the law and refuse to put them in line ahead of
those who have played by the rules and are waiting patiently. The
Democrats acknowledge this and have agreed to an unspecified
waiting period – how long is the question. For example, the
waiting list for siblings being sponsored by US citizens is 10-12
years! In the meantime, both sides agree that the undocumented
should be given a status that allows them to remain in the US and
work legally. In exchange for this status they will be expected to
pay a fine; demonstrate that they can speak, read and write English;
know a little about our history; and show that they have paid taxes
on their prior earnings for some period of time.

There is likely to be a two-track system: a shorter track for
“dreamers,” those younger immigrants (typically under 30) brought
here before they were 14 by their parents; and a regular track for
all others. The big areas of dispute are how long they remain in
this “temporary” state and when they get to “activate” this status.
Most Republicans don’t want the pathway provisions to be activated
until there is some certification that the border is “secure” – what
the standards are for this and who makes that determination are
unclear. I suspect that E-Verify will be a key component of that
certification.

VISA AVAILABILITY
One of the reasons our system is broken is that it was designed
in 1952, so it doesn’t appropriately address the current economic
needs of our nation. Despite economic changes over the past sixty
years, the decline in birth rates and the increase in demand for
workers with various skill sets, our immigration law relies upon
an antiquated priority system that distributes too few visas in,
some would say, a nonsensical manner. As a result, certain citizens
have to wait up to 10 to 12 years to get a visa for their loved one.
Companies that go through a complicated process to show that
they can’t find qualified US workers to perform a job here in the US
often have to wait 8 years before they can get a green card for that
employee. It’s no wonder why people ignore the law and enter the
country without papers when they are faced with separation from
their loved one.

As part of immigration reform, look for the return of common
sense in a few areas. There seems to be some consensus that the
best and brightest who gain an advanced degree (particularly
in engineering or the sciences) from one of our Colleges or
Universities should not be forced to leave and should instead be
offered a green card; that more H-1B visas should be made available
for specialty workers, particularly in the technology sector; and that
a guest worker visa should be available to Mexican nationals that
allows them to come to the US to work for a period, particularly in
the agricultural field, which would allow them to return home and
would not put them on a path to citizenship.

While my crystal ball remains cloudy as to the full details of what
Congress might ultimately pass, in my nearly twenty-five years
of following this issue, I have never been more confident that we
are approaching a resolution and that immigration reform will be
enacted in 2013.